National Bureau of Economic Research | NBER
Research associates Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson have been awarded the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences "for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity." The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences explained that the three scholars "contributed innovative research about what affects countries' economic prosperity."
Business Cycle Dating | NBER
The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles. The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recessions and expansions. A recession is the period between a peak of economic activity and its subsequent trough, or lowest point. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an ...
Research | NBER
Average property insurance premiums have risen by more than 30 percent since 2020, and there is wide variation by location. Premiums have risen the most for homeowners in areas with the highest risk of natural disasters such as hurricanes or wildfires.While premiums have always been higher in riskier locations, the relationship between disaster risk and premiums has grown …
How the US-China Trade War Affected the Rest of the World
U pendin g a decades-long effort to reduce global trade barriers, China and the United States began mutually escalating tariffs on $450 billion in trade flows in 2018 and 2019. These tariff increases reduced trade between the US and China, but little is known about how trade was affected in the rest of the world. In The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations (NBER …
Unpacking the Causes of Pandemic-Era Inflation in the US
The annual inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, was 1.7 percent in February 2021 but rose to more than 5 percent in June 2021. It continued rising for another year, peaking at about 9 percent in June 2022. The rise in the inflation rate has been attributed to many factors. The US response to the COVID-19 pandemic included a ...
Long-Run Trends and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
Jun 30, 2021 · In the aftermath of the Great Recession, the natural rate of unemployment gradually declines roughly in line with its secular trend. The natural rate toward the end of 2018 was 3.8 percent, with a confidence interval between 3.4 and 4.5 percent, consistent with the unemployment gap being around zero before the pandemic.
experienced an average decrease of 11.5 hours of work per week and a 21% decrease in weekly earnings, arnings for 52% of the sample, which again re ects s. variation in the e ects of COVID-19 across students. In terms of labor market expectations, on average, students foresee a 13 percentage points decrease in.
The Economic Impact of Climate Change over Time and Space
Jan 5, 2022 · By Klaus Desmet and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg. Climate change is an unintended consequence of the industrialization of the world economy. The evidence that human activity has released large amounts of CO2into the atmosphere, leading to rising global temperatures, is by now uncontroversial. However, so far, the scientific and political recognition ...
New Evidence on the Impacts of Birth Order | NBER
Jan 5, 2018 · We find that the probability of having high blood pressure declines with birth order, and the largest gap is between first- and second-borns. Second-borns are about 3 percent less likely to have high blood pressure than firstborns; fifth-borns are about 7 percent less likely to have high blood pressure than firstborns.
The Benefits of Rehabilitative Incarceration | NBER
Apr 6, 2020 · Figure 2. In Norway, the average time spent in prison is a little over six months, which is similar to most other Western European countries. This contrasts with average US prison time of almost three years, which is in large part the reason the United States is an outlier in its incarceration rate compared with the rest of the world [Figure 1].