A falling dollar usually eases financial conditions, but recent dollar weakness is unlikely to reverse negative growth surprises, reinforcing our call to sell risk assets on strength. Our tactical ...

The stock-bond yield correlation is stabilizing after months of jitters, setting the stage for renewed Treasury demand as recession risks build. A negative correlation typically points to inflation ...

With U.S. GDP contracting and consumption slowing, rising input costs and a tight Fed stance support a shift toward long-duration assets.

Soft data continues to deteriorate and hard data will soon follow, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. Consumer and business confidence have plunged as policy uncertainty and inflation ...

April 2 may mark peak trade tensions, but the path forward remains highly uncertain, supporting our underweight on risk assets and industrial commodities. The USTR’s long-awaited report on trade ...

Our tactical framework shows how economic surprises impact financial conditions, offering insights for market positioning as US and Euro Area dynamics diverge.

The ECB cut rates as expected, but rising yields and a stronger euro are tightening financial conditions just as fiscal policy shifts the macro landscape. With more rate cuts ahead and market ...

BCA Research is the leading independent provider of global investment research Since 1949, BCA Research's mission has been to shape the level of conviction with which our clients make investment ...

BCA Research is the leading independent provider of global investment research Since 1949, BCA Research's mission has been to shape the level of conviction with which our clients make investment ...

BCA Research is the leading independent provider of global investment research Since 1949, BCA Research's mission has been to shape the level of conviction with which our clients make investment ...

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Last week’s tariff debacle kicks off a period of heightened global policy uncertainty under the new US administration. That is bad news for financial assets exposed to the business cycle. Meanwhile, ...