Traditional forecasting relies upon a method called numerical weather prediction ... are more likely to take action if you give them the probability of something happening.” ...

An ensemble model gives meteorologists a range of weather forecast scenarios and a probability of how likely that scenario will play out. Ensemble models communicate uncertainty in a forecast and ...

The United States began nationwide probability forecasting in 1965. Much of forecasting involved human intuition from studying weather maps, Jeglum said. During the 1970s, statistical models ...

This is a tough one, and why it’s pegged as a “conditional” severe weather situation here in Michigan. My feeling from my 36 years of professional forecasting in the Great Lakes is it will ...

Here’s the very latest from the Storm Center: **6:45am Update-Thunderstorms are forecast to develop after midday east of I-29. There is a conditional ... probability of severe weather after ...

Within NOAA, the National Weather Service has been thrown into turmoil, and experts argue this could threaten the reliability of America’s weather forecasting ... a low-probability, high-risk ...

Traditional fire forecasts are largely based on weather models that predict temperature, humidity, wind speed and precipitation. By contrast, the Probability of Fire model used by the European ...