Support for early voting and voter ID grew after Pennsylvanians heard from experts and talked out their differences in poll.

The results in 95 of those polls would show candidates getting support somewhere in a range of 46.7% to 53.3% — even though we know in this imaginary world that the race is actually tied at 50%.

Fully 20 out of 59 polls there (34%) show an exact tie and 26 (44%) show a 1-point margin or less And even though there is a 15% chance that a truly tied race could produce a poll with more than a ...

All of this could lead to skewed poll results, even with recall-vote weighting. Recall-vote weighting would have made polls less accurate in every election since 2004, the New York Times has reported.

At the same time, the polls offer little evidence that African-American voters are all that much likelier to turn out in 2020, a pattern that’s evident in most midterm and special election results.

Every cycle, the polls diverge from the election results to some extent. It’s inevitable when pollsters can make estimates only about who will show up to vote, some people make up their minds ...

One poll found Biden to be trailing Trump by 1 point. Among election junkies, in newsrooms and on social media, each of these polling results makes for a likely conversation topic, headline, or tweet.

Even in a close election, random chance means polls should be showing a broader range of results. That raises the question of whether we’re in for another polling surprise.