Soft data continues to deteriorate and hard data will soon follow, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. Consumer and business confidence have plunged as policy uncertainty and inflation ...

Explore the President’s second-term agenda to boost US exceptionalism, focusing on justice reform, border protection, manufacturing, and energy production.

Our tactical framework shows how economic surprises impact financial conditions, offering insights for market positioning as US and Euro Area dynamics diverge.

With U.S. GDP contracting and consumption slowing, rising input costs and a tight Fed stance support a shift toward long-duration assets.

April 2 may mark peak trade tensions, but the path forward remains highly uncertain, supporting our underweight on risk assets and industrial commodities. The USTR’s long-awaited report on trade ...

A falling dollar usually eases financial conditions, but recent dollar weakness is unlikely to reverse negative growth surprises, reinforcing our call to sell risk assets on strength. Our tactical ...

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier this week, which also showed a modest rebound. We are looking for a turning ...

Our Geopolitical Strategy team published their annual outlook, and see three trends shaping 2025. First, Congress is expected to pass tax cuts by the end of 2025, providing a fiscal thrust of 0.9% of ...

Explore the impact of tariffs on the US economy, the Fed, and the dollar. Learn how trade wars could reshape the global order and increase market volatility.

According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint Strategy service, the post-pandemic US economy has inverted from its usual ‘demand-constrained’ state to a highly unusual ‘supply-constrained’ state. This ...

BCA Research is the leading independent provider of global investment research Since 1949, BCA Research's mission has been to shape the level of conviction with which our clients make investment ...

The stock-bond yield correlation is stabilizing after months of jitters, setting the stage for renewed Treasury demand as recession risks build. A negative correlation typically points to inflation ...