Ms. Harris leads by four points in Pennsylvania, just as she did immediately after the final debate. Mr. Trump leads by six points in Arizona, about the same as the five-point lead he held three weeks ago.

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are each vying to win the critical state of Pennsylvania, where the two candidates are polling neck-and-neck. Early voting data suggests that more Democrats are voting early than Republicans, meaning that Harris could have the edge among early voters.

Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden, who is originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania, reversed the trend in 2020, w