Support for early voting and voter ID grew after Pennsylvanians heard from experts and talked out their differences in poll.

The results in 95 of those polls would show candidates getting support somewhere in a range of 46.7% to 53.3% — even though we know in this imaginary world that the race is actually tied at 50%.

Fully 20 out of 59 polls there (34%) show an exact tie and 26 (44%) show a 1-point margin or less And even though there is a 15% chance that a truly tied race could produce a poll with more than a ...

All of this could lead to skewed poll results, even with recall-vote weighting. Recall-vote weighting would have made polls less accurate in every election since 2004, the New York Times has reported.

Every cycle, the polls diverge from the election results to some extent. It’s inevitable when pollsters can make estimates only about who will show up to vote, some people make up their minds ...

For decades, this stubborn refusal to guess in advance earned her both accurate poll results and the adoration of those who study polling: In 2016, a 538 article called her “The Best Pollster in ...

Even in a close election, random chance means polls should be showing a broader range of results. That raises the question of whether we’re in for another polling surprise.