538's 2024 presidential election forecast shows a very close, toss-up race, with Trump taking a small lead.

Votes this year will matter more than ever: According to 538's forecasts for the White House, U.S. Senate and U.S. House, control of the federal government is firmly up for grabs.

The prediction model from 538 gives Trump a 45 percent of victory, up from 39 percent in mid-September.

Here's everything that goes into this year's model. On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling ...

538's 2024 presidential election forecast shows a very close, toss-up race, with Trump taking a small lead.

The prediction model from 538 gives Trump a 45 percent of victory, up from 39 percent in mid-September.

Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...