The Cook Political Report updated its forecast for U.S. Senate races on Thursday and the change for the key Montana race effectively flipped the majority in the chamber to the Republicans.

The 2024 election was a resounding victory not only for Donald J. Trump but also for prediction markets like the crypto-based Polymarket, which allow users to trade contracts that pay out based on ...

Throughout the 2020s, the digital landscape of electoral forecasting became saturated ... bettor class feels about a specific candidate or political outcome. Every day, platforms with names ...

The founder of FiveThirtyEight has a new book on his path from playing poker professionally to political forecasting, and why people like to risk it all Nate Silver became a nationwide sensation ...

I'm Jeronimo Cortina, political scientist at the University of Houston. And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus, also a political scientist here at the University of Houston. Thanks for joining us.

Those actors, detractors say, may now extend their ethos and influence into political forecasting, too. Those returns on political bets might also offset the hundreds of millions of dollars ...

That would make this cycle 19% more expensive than the 2019-2020 cycle during the last presidential election and set a new record for political advertising. The higher forecast included an extra $255 ...

That the Labor Party is in power by grace of the Liberal Party is by now a truism. That the Liberal Party is showing signs of compound fracture became evident during the past week. This a priori ...