Today 538 published our official forecast for the 2024 presidential election. The model builds on our general election polling averages by asking not just what our best guess is about who is ...

General election polls are not the only information ... our historical testing revealed they are still helpful in producing a reliable election forecast. This is due to several factors, one ...

Those who spoke with USA TODAY said any prediction on Trump or Harris winning ... that typically populate the final weekends of a general election, while some say it might be time for newsrooms ...

Now, a little more than a week before the general election, the alerts seems to be turning into reality. Last month, the ABC 7 I-Team first reported on a federal intelligence warning that domestic ...

Off-target predictions about U.S. presidential races ... in pegging Barack Obama’s general-election victory over Republican John McCain. Collectively, the polls estimated Obama’s lead late ...