For 2024, 538 built a new presidential election forecast model from the ground up. This article explains how we did it: the ...

Today 538 published our official forecast for the 2024 presidential election. The model builds on our general election polling averages by asking not just what our best guess is about who is ...

With mere days to go before the general election in a very tight White House ... fiscal trends and polling data to make his prediction. Barraud, known for economic forecasting, has taken an ...

This raised interesting questions about the value of polls. Since then, he has built general election forecast models which are heavily reliant on polls. This was all pretty close to the mark.

Those who spoke with USA TODAY said any prediction on Trump or Harris winning ... that typically populate the final weekends of a general election, while some say it might be time for newsrooms ...

Now, a little more than a week before the general election, the alerts seems to be turning into reality. Last month, the ABC 7 I-Team first reported on a federal intelligence warning that domestic ...

“This is my fifth presidential election – and my ninth general election overall ... descendant” of the FiveThirtyEight election forecast. On Sunday, the election guru said that any momentum ...

General election polls are not the only information ... our historical testing revealed they are still helpful in producing a reliable election forecast. This is due to several factors, one ...