President Trump’s administration has been predicting its barrage of tariffs targeting China will push Apple into manufacturing the iPhone in the US. But that’s an unlikely scenario.

The iPhone 16 Pro Max 256 GB, which is among the devices that are assembled in China, retails for $1,199. Under the new tariffs on Chinese imports, the price of the device could rise by $675, or 56%, lifting the price tag to $1,874, an April 9 analysts from UBS Investment Research shows.

Apple Inc. has managed to dodge its biggest crisis since the pandemic — for the moment, at least. Donald Trump’s 125% tariffs on goods produced in China threatened to upend its supply chain as seriously as the Covid snarls did five years ago.