The rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is tight, per 538′s new election forecast published Tuesday. It predicts the race will, once again, come down to a handful of swing states and that ...

The SurveyUSA California poll and the Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight poll look good; the others, not so much. But some of these polls are also pretty confusing.

FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows that Harris is now marginally ahead of Trump in the key swing state, on 45.8 percent to the former president's 45.4 percent, after having overtaken him with a ...

Hillary Clinton remains the favorite in the presidential race with a 69 percent of winning, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polls-only model, and a 68 percent chance according to polls-plus.

538's polling averages also look for differences between polls that do and do not give voters the ability to say they support third-party candidates, such as independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (who ...

Based on FiveThirtyEight’s polls-only forecast, as of 7 p.m. on Oct. 20. The news is very good for Democrats. The Democrat has a better chance than they did a week ago in all six states ...

Here at 538, we cover polls year-round, so we'd like to share with you some tips we've learned over the years on how to consume polls responsibly. Anytime you see a poll out in the wild, ...

Thus, Quinnipiac polls are worth taking seriously — and they get more weight in the FiveThirtyEight forecast than an unknown pollster would. Check the methodology (but keep it simple).

Source: FiveThirtyEight Polls-only forecast on july 1. She had a 78 percent chance of winning the election, according to our real polls-only forecast.

An ABC News project 538 poll found that Trump's approval rating nudged down slightly from 47.8% on Monday to 47.6% on Tuesday, according to its update as of 11:56 p.m. Tuesday.