The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady next week, with investors focused on new central bank projections that will show how much weight policymakers are putting on recent soft data and how much risk they attach to unresolved trade and budget issues and an intensifying conflict in the Middle East.

Treasury yields are higher Friday, with investors calculating that the surge in oil prices could push up overall inflation and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. While geopolitical instability can sometimes boost Treasurys as investors look to buy safer assets,